Change of Plans & The Big Picture

While it is good to be focused on your plan there are times that you need to change them.  This is not to be done on a whim but when circumstances say the best way to continue on your journey is to make some adjustments.  This can be hard as one has to make sure the change is not out of fear or some other reason not grounded in what you see as the big picture.  That is key and if you don’t have a big picture view of what you do there is a good chance you will err by just pushing forward or if you see the need for change make the wrong adjustment.

One other thing to think about, and I have written on this before - It’s OK to Want to Only Run 5k’s: Or any other Distance for that Matter - , is that often we have a faulty view of challenges.  For example many see a marathon or even a 100 Mile running race as a goal and anything less is, well less.  But one needs to realize for some a 1/2 marathon or even a 50K run are adequate and in truth more what needs to be aimed for based on the time one has to train or maybe also based on ones physical condition.  This also happens in many gravel races where one sees, say the Unbound 200 as all there is and never even consider the 100.  Sure the 200 is the marque event and for sure a challenge but for some the 100 will be just as challenging but also within the realm of one’s life situation and training.   This is not to talk anyone into looking at other distances but saying none of them should be minimized as less because they are not.  I can tell you that shorter races have their own challenges - one being they are often faster - so don’t overlook that.

So, after the Dust Bowl 100 on July 26th and having issues after 50 miles it made me have to take a hard look at the Gravel Worlds Double ( 50K Run Friday / 150 Mile Ride Saturday).  I had to ask myself with the shape I am in and with my sleep issues, a subject for a later post, was the Double a wise move.  Could I do it - likely so even if very slow.  But how would I come away from it as still have the Ragnar Bourbon Chase Relay the first part of October and just did not want to be so beat up I could not enjoy training - I have said it before I may be weird but I enjoy training and would do so even if I did not have any big races.  In thinking about this and taking to a few people I decided make a change and do the 1/2 Double (25K / 75 Mile) instead as the 25K run and the 75 Mile ride were going to be more doable and I could even race then and not just finish.  Based on the Dust Bowl it was still going to be tough as I think my racing limit is in the 100K range right now but at least then I only would have to slog out another 13 miles and not 90 miles.  The other thing to consider was the heat as I do not seem to be as heat adapted as usual, not sure if training, age or a combination of both, as really felt it at the Dust Bowl and Gravel Worlds in Nebraska is likely to be just as hot and  150 Miles I am not ready for and in the heat my not go well.  Yea, I probably could slog it out but how would it leave me.  Shout out to the people at Gravel Worlds as messaged them and they changed by entry right away - Thanks.

The interesting part is I made the change and focus early this week - a day or so after the Dust Bowl - and this Saturday (8/2/25) I did a trial run and ride.  I ran 16 miles and after changing and fueling some, about an hour, I went out and rode 41 miles.  While the efforts at Gravel Worlds are a day apart and today’s were an hour apart it did tell me I made the right decision.  My pace for the 16 mile run was 9:07/mile but the issue was my right foot - the one that usually gives me issues and did so at The Pistol 50K - got sore as well as the ankle and could not push the downhills so did not make up time.  The good side though was that although I had not done a long run in some time I was able to do it but pretty sure 25K more would not go well with my foot.  The ride was not a blazer but was solid and other than it being hard to get my leg over the bike an hour after the run I felt fine and settled in as the ride went on.  So with the right rest after the run in 3 weeks I should be even better.  All this to say this just confirmed my decision and now to get some work in just to better harden up my legs to the pounding but not over do it before the race - and oh yea get some sleep hopefully.

Bottom line is that while we need to take on hard things we need to make sure the hard things are defined by us and not by outside opinions, biases or incorrect assumptions.  You should talk to others - I did before my decision to change to the 1/2 -  to make sure we are not coping out due to fear but making a wise decision based on a number of criteria.  When you have a good big picture view of why you do what you do this all becomes much easier - well a little easier anyway as often we still will get an initial feeling of “wimping out” but if done wisely you are not.

Now for the Grave Worlds 1/2 Double in 3 weeks (Aug 22 & 23).

  Click on images for more information and if you want more info on OFM check out this post: 

• What is OFM (Optimized Fat Metabolism)

To order Vespa you can go here and use coupon code - tkonvalin15 -   for 15% off.

It’s OK to Want to Only Run 5K’s: Or any other Distance for that Matter!!

This was originally on my old Bluegrass-Runner Blog but decided to move it here as it relates to my next post.

To start, this post is not to down play Ultras or lift up 5K’s but to step back and take a look at why we run what we run.

With the rise in popularity of Ultras, any distance over the marathon, it often seems that many that simply want to run shorter races, for whatever reason, may start to get the impression that what they do is somehow less impressive.  I am not saying those that run Ultras, or those that promote them, are seeking to create this impression, but it can often come across by how we build up those that do run longer races or how we speak of our longer runs.   Often with the talk of challenging ones-self and all the great, and they are truly great, personal inspirational stories it can be easy to begin to think differently about your own situation and look at it from the perspective of others and not from your own perspective.  What I want to do is not tell you what you should, or should not, run but share some thoughts that may help you look at why, and what, you run from your own perspective.

Let me start with what one might call unintended consequences.  By this I mean that often the pictures we see of Ultra’s are of those smiling and looking to have fun, and they may indeed be having fun, in amazing places.  I realize that most race reports share the lows as well but the saying  “a picture is worth a thousand words” comes into play that often the great pictures of an event leave a greater impression than the actual report.  When you compare this with pictures we see of, say, a 5K the aura put forth is decidedly different.  Often those in the 5K look somewhat distressed, a consequence, of pushing the limits for such a short race and on top of that most 5k's are on the road and lets be honest it is hard to make a road race look as enticing as that of a trail race.  On top of all this we hear great stories of people overcoming the many obstacle before them in longer races, stories often not heard with regards to a 5 or 10K.  To be fair we do hear such stories when it comes to marathons but our natural inclination is to, unintentionally, think that the longer the race the more there is to overcome – not necessarily true but something our minds tend to perceive it that way.  I am not saying those seeking to promote the sport of trail running and Ultra running are intentionally minimizing shorter races but I would say they have done such a good job of promotion that unintended consequence arise in that people are often enticed to the longer races.  I will add here I am probably guilty of this as well as many of the videos I share are of challenging races in beautiful and often remote places - but it is hard not to share them:) . So if I have unintentionally created the feeling that running longer and harder is better I apologize.

Next, is the idea that as individuals we need to challenge ourselves but in doing so look at our time and physical abilities and let them drive what we run rather than the latest inspirational article.  Yes, do not let preconceived limits limit you but do live in reality.  I use my self as an example: I have a nature that just likes to push the limits and thus how I moved to Ultra’s 43 years of running.  When I was younger I ran pretty well in the marathon and often ran 20 milers but had no desire to run Ultra’s but was also not influenced by the press on this as Ultras were basically an outlier sport and I also knew the pain many who ran them went through.  But when I came back to running, and after running  plenty of marathons, and hearing the stories and reading the magazines, seeing the videos and hearing the stories I was drawn to Ultra’s.  I never stopped to ask myself about the time I had to train and the toll my body may take after having been running for so many years, albeit not always running a lot.  Instead I went with the Ultra-Flow and did my first 50K which was painful but that made running longer even more enticing  - so I then looked to 50 miles.  My first 50 miler went pretty well in that I got 10th overall but my feet, mostly my current problem right foot, took a beating.  Instead of doing what I should have and ask myself about what was best for my body, at least at this time, and if I should go further or find my niche I then looked to run 100k or 100 miles.  Again, in all this I kept hearing stories, reading posts and watching videos of those running a 100 miles and even I who should know better allowed them to drive my direction rather than stopping to look inside first.  I then moved up my training with 100 miles in the distance as a goal and in doing this and running more 50ks and long training runs I looked past my foot issues- another of my less than redeeming traits as I often try and push through things when I should stop and reassess the situation.  The point here in all this rambling is I let the allure of running longer and longer drive my decision making and not a reality check of my body.  We need to challenge ourselves but in doing so live in reality and not denial.

Another aspect in this is to look at your goals with the races you run.  I say races but often for the majority of those entered in races are mostly racing themselves.  However, if you are one who is competitive and looking to do well overall, or in your age group, this may play into what you run and how far.  It is good to think this through since going in a direction because of curiosity or the allure may hamper your real goals.  As an example: for me I have a goal to run Boston in 2020 when I am 60 and then every 5 years so I am going to maybe run a 50K and one longer adventure run before the 2020 Boston race but everything else will be shorter to make sure I am healthy and ready for Boston.  Having goals helps, well should as often I let other things cloud the issue, to make decisions on what and how far to run.  Two runners who show a great understanding of what they are good at and what they want to run are Joseph Gray and Max King.  Joseph tends to run shorter mountain runs and while I am pretty sure he could run 50k’s or more he knows what it is he is good at and where his focus needs to be for now and does not let others drive a change.  Max is much the same as while I am sure he would do well at longer races most of his races are 50 miles or shorter, even running one obstacle circuit that is more “run-centric.”  The point being they know what they want to do and what will make that happen so are not drawn from that focus.

I would like to add that while I talk about enjoying running this does not preclude there being effort and some level of discomfort that may still exist.  It is often this discomfort that gives us the most satisfaction when it is overcome.  No matter the distance you run discomfort can be part of it.  I can truly say I have hurt more in a really hard 5k, even a mile when in HS and College, than in most of my Ultras albeit the discomfort in the Ultra lasted longer but rarely have my lungs hurt as bad as in a hard mile or 5K.  What this says is that if ones goal is to push through barriers then you can find them at any distance.  Yes, in Ultras often those barriers last longer and come and go more often due to the time on your feet.  But, in a 5K the mental aspect can be just as hard to get through.  I know for me the 2nd mile in a 5K is a mental barrier I need to push through as much as miles 10-20 in a 50K.  Both barriers are real and when I can break them both consistently I will have accomplished something be it in a 5K or 50K.

The above has just been some thoughts and as I have said this is not to dissuade anyone from an Ultra or talk people into 5K’s but instead is an encouragement to look at where you are and ask questions of yourself about why you want to run what you want to run.  So just ask yourself the following:

• Are running a race or distance because you want to or because others make you feel you want to?
• Are you ready, and have the time, to put in the effort to be able to have the best opportunity to complete your goal distance?
• Do you have any physical issues that may preclude you doing a particular distance and if done will hinder you even running shorter distances and enjoying life on a day to day basis?
• Do you race competitively or simply like to run in races for the camaraderie?  See how this plays into what you want to run.
• Do you have long terms goals and how does the run you are looking at play into those long term plans?

Bottom line is have fun, remembering fun can have discomfort, no matter the distance you.  No matter how far you run do it to because it is what you want to do and not because it is the thing the “Cool Kids Are Doing?  When you are done and have taken a hard look at why you want to do what you want do and find you want to run long and do Ultras then by all means do the work needed and go for it, maybe the Moab 240 is in your future.  But, if you find you only want to run 5Ks and have fun and enjoy the camaraderie at the races then go for that and do not feel any less than those that run longer.

Again have fun!!!!!

 

  Click on images for more information and if you want more info on OFM check out this post: 

• What is OFM (Optimized Fat Metabolism)

To order Vespa you can go here and use coupon code - tkonvalin15 -   for 15% off.

2025 Dust Bowl 100 Race Recap

Four weeks after racing the Gravel Grinder Nationals in Greencastle Indiana I headed back out to Eminence Indiana, which is very close to Greencastle, to do the Dust Bowl 100.  This was my second year and had some high goals for me - getting close to 5 hours - but knowing based on my race 3 weeks before that this was probably too big a goal.  But hey one can have goals:). 

While still having sleep problems I had hoped to get at least a few hours so went to bed early but that did not help as just like 4 weeks ago I got 0, yes 0, hours sleep the night before the race.  While often the night before a race is not as important with as bad as I have been sleeping 0 was not good.  That said went to the line hoping for the best.

Did not get in much of a warmup as was just tired and it was warm - about 75-78f but high humidity so sweating already and had not even started.  Got to the line and set up in the 18mph-20 mph group - one can hope.  When the race started once again my GPS gave me problems as I could see a blue label on the screen, had never seen that before, but as I need my reading glasses on to read it I had to fumble for them and once again, like last year, I faded to the back of the group - not a good start.  Never figured out the issue but got it sorted out and then worked to get back up through the pack before the real racing got going - would not happen as could seem them a ways up there.  This meant while many were just cruising I was pushing it to move up before the gravel.  I did link up with a few others so at least had company. 

When I hit the gravel I was way way back but worked with a group to slowly move up some.  While I could tell I was working I did fell fairly good if not sleepy.  We sort of pace-lined for  quite a while with a few dropping off but stayed with a pretty good group till the first aid station at around 50 miles.  While many stopped I did not as just did not think I needed to yet and figured as I was on my own they would likely catch up - and they did.  The good news I was only about 3 minutes behind last years pace to 50 miles, when I checked the data later.  The bad news was last year at this point I was tired but felt OK but this year I felt spent already.  This is where no sleep comes into play as even if my legs might have been able to go harder my sleepy brain said NO and that I had to conserve to just get done.
Last year after 50 miles I linked up with some people - one of which I was there this year - and worked to go to the end.  But here I could not hang on and was a weird feeling as did not feel too bad but my brain just said no-go.  So they went off and I got caught by a few of those who stopped at the aid station and hung on as long as I could - was not long.  This sort of repeated itself till I stopped at an aid station that I think was at about 63 miles.  There I filled up with water and had the first coke of the day then got back on the road.  Then it was a matter of just catching a few people and then getting passed by a few as could not get going at a good pace.  Up til this time I still looked like I could go under 6:00 but that slowly went out the window.

By this time I am not sure how hot it was but at the end of the race I saw temps of 95-98 with humidity and it felt like it.  The blessing was that while when the sun shone it was really hot we did get some clouds go by so did a get. Break every now and then.  The next stop was at an aid station around 78 miles where I only got a coke and was back out there as so close but still not feeling it.  Did catch on with a few people so that helped and from there was just counting down the miles to be done and playing mind games to make the miles seem less - like looking forward to 98 miles as that was around the end of the gravel and the last home stretch - you do what you can.

Was wondering how the last bit would be as the course finishes with a part that goes through a dirt section and then grass as sorta like cyclocross.  The afternoon before I had done a shake out ride after a big rain when I got to the dirt it ended up being thick clay and locked up the tyres so had figured if got to the end and looked muddy I would just carry my bike.  Thankfully with the heat of the day and looked like a truck may have driven to pack the dirt and lots of other riders there was a good hard packed section so no mud thankfully.

So ended a tough ride but a good one as anytime you finish, and even sometimes if you do not, it is a good ride - my  time ended up being 6:14:12 - was 5:36:08 last year -  and was 150th OA, out of 322, and 8th in 60-69, out of 31 - only 15 minutes or so out of 3rd and 30 minutes out of 2nd. Geoffrey Chandler who won the Gravel Grinder Nats 4 weeks ago also won here and rode awesome as his time was 5:06 and he was 30th OA - the guy is fast.  While it was not the race I wanted it was the race I got for the shape I was in.  My initial thought was that next year I would do the 100K but after some days thinking about it I may indeed do the 100K as it is a good distance to race with the training time I have - BUT I may also still do the 100 miler as I really think if I am trained and get this sleeping issue sorted out - and maybe not quite as hot - I can go close to 5 hours.

This was my first race on the new custom Capital Bicycle Company bike and it did great,  It was a super dusty day so my left Favero SPD pedal gave me some issue as it did not want to let me out at the end - did the same last year - so need to work out that problem.  The SRAM Red XPLR 13 Speed shifted great and 1X gearing - 46frt and 10-46 rear - was just right.  The Rene Herse Oracle Ridge 48’s, used the Endurance + as to me will take the weight hit for no flats, on the ZIPP 303 XPLR S Rims were great.  I will tell you the tyres were awesome - and the width was perfect as no issue in the gravel and they felt OK on the road sections.

Here is a map of the course - Dust Bowl 100 Mile Route

Strava Info - Dust Bowl 100 Strava

Ride Video - This is the YouTube link to the video below:

As far as fueling I have been working at being able to better use carbs as after years of getting fat adapted and being able to do well with very few carbs my ability to utilize carbs as needed is not what it needs to be in fast races like this one.  My goal was 300g in 5 hours - so 60g/hr so that was what I carried - idea is if I go slower I need less anyway so was a good number.  I will put the totals below but my final figure was around 225 during the race so at 6.25 hours that is 36.3g/hr.  A little story - as I have told people I put 3 gels - in this case 90g carbs - in a soft flask and carry that and had 3 other gels (66g) in another one and a couple other gels and drink mix .  Well I went to take my first hit of the 90g gel flask but hit a bump and it made me grip the flask too much and out squirted half the flask all over my hands and top tube bag - just what one wants with 4+ hours to go:)  As far as water I carried 2ea - 900ml bottles, 1ea - 2ltr bladder and 2ea 500ml soft bottles - I did refill one bottle at an aid station and refill my 2ltr bladder - likely not fully empty - for likely total of 6.65ltrs for the whole ride.  I never used the two 500ml soft flasks as they were there if raced through the aid stations.  The 900ml bottles had 75g carbs in each but figure I drank one full one, and filled it, but the other I drank about half of and refilled that half with water at an aid station.  I did also take 2ea Vespa UC at 2 hours and 4 hours.  I did look back and as I did not finish my bottles I was likely short on electrolytes so need to work on that.  Total break down is below:

Pre-Ride
2 cups coffee with some collagen, Creatine and cream
1 packet oatmeal

30 minutes before race
1 Vespa UC
1 UCAN Latte with Caffeine

10 minutes before
1 Vespa JR

Totals for Preride
Cals - 610kcal
Carbs - 80g
Fat - 22.5g
Protein - 34g

Race Fueling - this is what was taken in not what I carried
Carbs in water bottles - 110g (Goodlife)
Carbs from Gels - 105g (Neversecond and SIS)
As a note I used the Unflavored Neversecond Gel but it is far from no flavor and strong but I find this with any of the higher carb gels
Carbs from Vespa - 10g

Totals
Cals - 903.3 kcal
Carbs - 225g

Electrolytes
In water bottles - Myoxcience Electrolytes - 441mg sodium/675mg Potassium/180mg Magnesium
4 S!Caps - 1364mg Sodium/84mg Potassium

Water - 6.65Ltrs

So, now to get ready for Gravel Worlds where I initially was doing the Double (50K run Friday/150 Mile ride Saturday) but with sleep issues and training decided to move down the Half Double (25K run Friday/75 Mile Ride Saturday).  While my ego thinks I am coping out I realize the smart thing to do was drop down as still a hard two days but will be fun and not a slog for the sake of slogging.  

As a final note the Dust Bowl 100 it is a great race so give it a go next year but let me warn you it fills up fast.

  Click on images for more information and if you want more info on OFM check out this post: 

• What is OFM (Optimized Fat Metabolism)

To order Vespa you can go here and use coupon code - tkonvalin15 -   for 15% off.

2025 Tour de France Stage 19 , 20 & 21 - No Real Surprises in the Big Picture, but Good Racing

This will be a shorter round up and cover the last three stages as by now am sure most have already checked everything out.  Friday I was driving to the Dust Bowl 100 gravel race in Indiana and then Saturday was the race and a drive home.  But the fun did not stop there as had to wash clothes and get things ready to pack on Sunday to head out to So Cal for a business trip.  I only go two watch Stage 21 as I was packing so this will be brief as just from what I heard mostly on some podcasts and the short highlights

STAGE 19

Stage 19 - Albertville to La Plagne - 129.9K - Mountain (4550m Vert) 

So the stage got shortened by a couple climbs and became 23 miles shorter so was now only about 58 miles.  There were still two HC climbs and it still finishes up La Plagne.  That said at 58 miles it could have been a slugfest or it could go have gone the other way and Jonas realizes not enough time to make up the difference and this goes to a break - not what I see though.  I still think Tadej wants to win so there is that and being shorter UAE does not need to worry as much as can get more riders to push the pace.  The sprinters are probably a little happy - I say little as still not easy.  The start will be much the same with the early sprint but the sprinters can hang on a little longer and have less climbs to lose time.

All that said it was a little anticlimactic as Arensman went up the road on the last climb and never really had a big lead if Tadej and Jonas wanted to get him.  I think Tadej wanted to win this stage but also did not want to take chances and maybe give Jonas a chance to sprint around him.  I think Tadj was hoping Jonas in trying to gain time would really push the pace but it never happened.  Even Tadej push did not get rid of Jonas so it ended up that Jonas finally went mourned Tadej but Arensman got the win and Jonas got a 2 second bonus.  I think is this we see a tired Tadej riding really smart knowing he did not have to do anything and a 2 second bonus was nothing.  We also saw, I think, a tired Jonas who said he was willing to lose 2nd to try and win but he did not show that - probably more about that he could not get away even even he wanted to.  So they readied for a lumpy Stage 20 and Arensman got his second win.  Sort of ironic a guy from the Netherlands where is is pan flat wins two mountain stages.

Stage 19 Highlights:

STAGE 20

Stage 20 - Nantua to Pobntarlier - Hilly (2900m Vert)

This would be an interesting one as seemed set up for a break-away but took some time and then when it did it seemed like it was going to be a sprint among the 13 guys in the break - one of which was sprinter Caden Groves from Alpecin.  Well that is what was thought but when there was 20k to go Romeo and Gregoire crashed hard and Groves, Jake Stewart and Van den Broek.  From there it was interesting as Stewart was sort of a sprinter but Goves was the man to likely win so when he jumped away at 17k Van den Broek left the chase to Stewart who did not or could not go and Caden Groves soloed it in - that was three wins in the TdF for one of the smaller budget teams including having MVDP in the yellow for a few days.  Pretty much sure everyone was surprised - not that he won by how he won - in a break.

Everyone else in the race was just working to stay upright it seemed as the word was the road was like ice from the rain and surface oil.  Thankfully none of the GC went down and look like al those who did were able to do the last stage.

Stage 20 Highlights

STAGE 21

Stage 21 - Mantes-La-Ville to Paris Champs-Elysees

The controversy on this stage was the route which instead of the procession into Paris then 6 or 8 laps of the Champs-Elysees not had the ride into Paris and then a few trips on the Champs but then went off for three loops up a short cobbled climb that was used in the 2024 Paris Olympics.  This made it unlikely it would be sprinters race with the short but punchy climb and 3 times.  Not sure if they would have done this if it was not going to rain but due to the rain the design was to take the GC time before the circuits so no matter what happened after that the GC would not change.  So it was as they all came in together and the GC was set and only the winner of the last stage was to be decided.

It was rumored that Tadej wanted to win and early on the first time up it was clear he wanted to win as he pushed the pace and there was a break - that also included Mateo Jorgenson and Wout Van Wert.  The break slowly opened a gap and the chasers never got that close - when down to one lap to go it was clear they backed off with the slippy pavement - and missing was Jonas - did not matter GC wise but with nothing at stake it was clear he wanted to cruise in and not risk anything for no real gains.

When Wout went on the last lap Tadej stayed there for a bit but near the top you saw Tadej concede.  He did keep the pace for a bit but it became clear Wout was going to get this.  Funny the announcers - unless I missed as was packing - referred to this as the first time Tadej could not respond but hey Wout did not ride hard for 20 days.  Taking nothing from Wout as he was easily the strongest but that Tadej was even there said much about the best rider in the race.  Also, that Jonas did not go with radio was smart on his part if he was not feeling it as started his rest for the Vuelta in month.  Speaking of the Vuelta Tadey did not commit but could we have the Tadej-Jonas show again.

So that it is.  A great race if not somewhat predictable for first and second after Jonas lost time on the two stages.  Good to see some young guys coming up - Lipowitz and Onley - and hope they pan out as we have seen young guys get near or even on the podium before but going for number one is a whole different thing - but hope they can do so.  Also, Ben Healy got the most Combative/Aggressive Rider for the Tour - he was for sure up there but for me Quinn was the guy for that.  They did give the best Domestique to Quinn, which he was for sure and Milan owes him for his jersey, so both of them got up there on the podium

Stage 21 Highlights:

Final Jerseys

• Yellow Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• Green Jersey - Jonathan Milan
• Polkadot Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• While Jersey - Florian Lipowitz

GC w/Time Gaps - Keep in mind most all the peloton got the same time on the last stage

1) Tadej Pogacar

2) Jonas Vengegaard - +04:24

3) Florian Lipowitz - +11:00

4) Oscar Onley - +12:12

5) Felix Gall - +17:12

6) Tobias Johannessen - +20:14

7) Kevin Vauquelin - +22:35

8) Primoz Roglic - +25:30

9) Ben Healy - +28:02

10) Jordan Jegat - +32:42

  Click on images for more information and if you want more info on OFM check out this post: 

• What is OFM (Optimized Fat Metabolism)

To order Vespa you can go here and use coupon code - tkonvalin15 -   for 15% off.

2025 Tour de France Stage 18 Thoughts - No Show of Weakness by Tadej

Stage 18 - Vic to Courchevel Col de La Loze - Mountain (5450m Vert)

With the Intermediate Sprint at 23.7 and slightly up hill it was expected that Lidel-Trek was going to keep it quick enough to discourage a break but keep Milan up there for the win - and so it was.  With 5K to the sprint they just were ramping it up and stretching out the pack - Ok for the sprinter since once the sprint was past they were going to drop back and work to just finish within the time limit.  So the sprint went as expected and even with Girmay on Milan's wheel he could not get by and looked to not really try.

Then it was time for attacks after the sprint and right after were was a small group that kept moving with Quinn, Wellens, WVA but the peloton did not let them go.  That said Wellens kept going  with 4 more chasing to catch on with a small break before the first climb to make a group of 5 but would not last with the climb of the Glandon (21.7K climb at 5.1%) coming up.  There then formed a larger group of 13 up ahead of the peloton that included Roglic but at the top the gap to the Tadej/Jonas group of 23 riders was only 1:48 back and a long descent to go before the next climb which was the Col de Madeline (19.2K at 7.9%).  At the front on the descent was UAE and then Visma to get down safe.  Also, of note as heard that Quinn was sent back with the other Trek guys to help pull Milan to the finish as if not would be along day and with 2 more long climbs to come he could miss the cut-off if not careful and if he did not have any help.  Unlike the Pyrenees the climbs in the Alps are long and you can lose a lot of time.

At the bottom of the Madeline the Yellow jersey group was 3:00 behind Arensman and Jorgenson so with this long climb and the last climb of the Col de La Loze being 26.4K at 6.5% there was a long way to go.  Jorgenson up front would be there to help Jonas later if needed.  Roglic was not letting the 2 get too far ahead as his group of 6 was still right there just behind early on the climb and would tag on.  Let alone with 7 miles still to climb the Tadej/Jonas group was chipping into the lead and was down to only 2:30 behind.  As I watched the climb you can just see that the Tadej/Jonas group is so much faster and with 5.5K to the top the gap was only 53 seconds and Sep Kuss went to the front and suddenly it was Kuss, Jonas, Tadej and just hanging on Lipowitz - barely hangin on.  This is what Jonas had to do as even with a long way to go he had to pressure Tadej for the long haul and not just in the last K's.

With 4.6 K Jonas put in a move and only Tadej could stay on as they worked ever closer to the front and up there Jonas had a helper in Jorgenson.  They caught the front with 4K to go to he bottom of he next limb so was going to be interesting how Mateo played into this as saw Jonas move a little and then sit back in behind Mateo.  Not sure this bothered Tadej as no need to chase Mateo and can just hang on as needed and watch Jonas as Mateo a long way back in GC.  The race was getting interesting.  While most were probably having a hard time breathing you could see Tadej talking to his DS:). The wild card in this was Roglic as if Lipowitz dropped more then Roglic could move up and also Roglic could just work to hang on and not appear to be attacking his teammate.

Mateo was railing the descent of the Madaline to the effect that Lipowitz, who is not a slouch descending, was losing time.  Even Tadej radioed Mateo was going full on going down.  That said they did not lose the rest of the lead group as it was still 7 riders.  As a note as the main group gets close the bottom of the descent the Green Jersey group was not to the top yet of the Madeline and was 24 minutes down - that gap would close some as the lead riders start to climb and the Trek led Green Jersey group will be going downhill.

Once at the bottom but still not officially on the climb there were some attacks to get a small lead with a few others but the fireworks were going to start once the real climb starts but with 4K to the start of the climb the 3 riders off the front only had 2 minutes but it has been seen already that this was not enough with a 26+K climb to come.

Once on the climb with 19.5k to go there were the 2 ahead, 2 more 1:22 back then 14 riders in the Yellow Jersey group 3:12 back.  Now it was a matter of Visma was pulling and just waiting on the final push of Jonas as he has to do something to gain some time as do not want to wait till the last climbing day tomorrow.  Joans dis have Mateo about 1:40 ahead in the 2nd group of 2.  Seemed clear Tadej was playing this smart knowing he had to do nothing and it was all on Jonas.  Did not mean he would not go closer to the finish but there was no need for a risky, especially if he was fighting a cold as had been intimated, long attack.

5K to go for O'Connor and a 3:00 lead so the question while watching was if it was enough.  Jonas and the other Visma guys were still not pushing so the longer they wait the better for O'Connor. Between them was Rubio who was 1:46 behind O'Connor so there was still a race no matter what Jonas and Tadej did.  All that said if the big two wanted to go they could close 3 minutes in 5K.

With about 1.5K to go Jonas went and Tadej had no issues and even Onley hung on.  Seemed clear Jonas did not have it to push - maybe holding off till tomorrow but then that also gives Tadej only having to deal with tomorrow.  Onley had been dropped caught back on then hung with Jonas and Tadej.  They were not going to get O'Connor but would they get Rubio and get more bonus seconds.  Well Tadej, like clockwork went with maybe 500K to go and left Jonas - who did maintain to not loose to much and even save 2 seconds by getting the third place bonus seconds as both Tadej and Jonas caught Rubio.  But was clear they are the strongest with Tadej just doing that is needed.  Will be interesting tomorrow as will he go for it with it being the last mountain stage and with 5 climbs and a 19.1K climb at an avg of 7.2% to finsoh it off there is no rest.  As for the sprinters with the Milan, Girmay and Merlier all finishing 42:37 back there was another day like this one ahead with a short 8K to the intermediate sprint then the gruppetto to the finish to be inside the time cut.

Race Highlights:

• Winner - Ben O'Connor
• Yellow Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• Green Jersey - Jonathan Milan
• Polkadot Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• While Jersey - Florian Lipowitz

GC W/Time Gaps

1) Tadej Pogacar

2) Jonas Vengegaard - +04:26

3) Florian Lipowitz - +11:01

4) Oscar Onley - +11:23

5) Primoz Roglic - +12:49

6) Felix Gall - +15:36

7) Kevin Vauquelin - +16:15

8) Tobias Johannessen - +18:31

9) Ben Healy - +25:41

10) Ben O'Connor - +29:19

Stage 17 Recap

Next, Stage 19 - Albertville to La Plagne - 129.9K - Mountain (4550m Vert) - 

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2025 Tour de France Stage 17 Thoughts - Pretty Standard Sprint Day - Likely Last Sprinter Day

Stage 17 - Bollene to Valence - 160.4K - Flat

The question of the day was if this would be a take it easy day - well looks like not, at least at the start.  The team of Milan - Lidl-Trek - wanted to keep Milan in it but that was going to be tough as unlike other green jersey winners he has a hard time on the hills - even small ones.   With one climb gone and 86K to go he was 1:23 off the front group and a minute off the main yellow jersey peloton.  They did get back on but this would seem like it would be a repeated process on the last small climb but there was time to get back on if they allow them to.

With 1K to the top of the last small climb WVA worked to bridge across and no one went with him.  That said at the top The leaders had 0:25 on WVA and 0:44 on the peloton with everyone still in it.  Looked like Milan was doing better and with the route now mostly all downhill and flat it would seem the peloton, if they time it right should catch the front - say should as strange things happen.

Quinn was at the front of the group working to keep the pace such that no one jumps away - well but WVA - but good enough not to lose Milan - and he did a great job of that.  With 40k to go it was now a timing event so that they did not catch the leaders too soon as then more would try and jump.  Ideally, as they did with MVDP earlier in the tour they catch in the last 1K in the lead out.  As the road got down the last climb it was clear WVA was not going to catch the front and the peloton was keeping them at about a minute with 30K to go.  With rain on the roads it was to make the finish a little touchy.

After all that it ended up coming down to a sprint and well the best sprinter won, Milan, even if he can at times be painful to watch sprint.  Milan did look better than he had on other days over the hills but that may have been his last chance as even the final day is unsure with a new course with a few climbs in it near the end and not simply riding up and down the Champs Elysees.  The Green Jersey is still up for grabs  - well to be grabbed by Tadej if he wants it.  The intermediate sprints the next two days are early so Milan may get those but the way points go Tadej could get a bunch up front.  Then on the Saturday there are some climbs before the intermediate sprint so Milan is not likely to get those.  The killer is that the last stage course this year goes up a 1.1K - 5.9% climb 3 times and tops out the last time only 6 K from the line so will be hard for Milan and other sprinters to be the main show as is usally the case on the last day.

Race Highlights:

• Winner - Jonathan Milan
• Yellow Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• Green Jersey - Jonathan Milan
• Polkadot Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• While Jersey - Florian Lipowitz

GC W/Time Gaps

1) Tadej Pogacar

2) Jonas Vengegaard - +04:15

3) Florian Lipowitz - +09:03

4) Oscar Onley - +11:04

5) Primoz Roglic - +11:42

6) Kevin Vauquelin - +13:20

7) Felix Gall - +14:50

8) Tobias Johannessen - +17:01

9) Ben Healy - +17:52

10) Carlos Rodriquez - +20:45

Stage 16 Recap 

Next, Stage 18 - Vic to Courchevel Col de La Loze - Mountain (5450m Vert) 

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2025 Tour de France Stage 16 Thoughts - When a 6:00 Lead is Barely Enough

Stage 16 - Montpellier to Mont Ventoux - 171.5K (2950M Vert) - Mountain

The news at the start of the race was that MVDP was out with pneumonia that he had been suffering a cold and just got worse - the TdF is not good for colds - and it seems to have turned to pneumonia.  Bummer as he was sneaking up on the Green Jersey but no longer.  Does show the affect the Tour can have as a number in the Tour have spoken of various degrees of colds - even Tadej - and while some get over it others, as with MVDP do not.

Today's stage was setting up to be a good one with a flat stage tomorrow before two more Mountain stages with Mountain finishes.  Let alone winning on Venotoux has to be a goal of any rider that can win it.  I would not be surprised if Jonas does not push this as he has over 4:00  to make up and it needs to start here.  He did mention in a post I saw that he knew he needed to risk 2nd to get 1st and while that is often said and he does nto really need another 2nd seeing it take place is another thing.  But, that is what he needs to do as if he just wanted to protect second he could just hang on and wait to see if Tadej has a bad day - but to go for the win he has to work to make, if possible, Tadej have a bad day and risk it all.

Was interesting that Milan let the main group go and in doing so was not doing himself any favors in the Green Jersey points competition as he was not in it for any points but Tadej who is close behind - and MVDP out - is primed to get that jersey.  Bob Roll spoke of Peter Sagan and was correct in that Sagan did anything he could to get those sprint points even if on mountain stages but Milan not so.

As they got to the bottom of Ventoux the lead group had just over 6:00 and was not expecting that big a gap.  Would seem with Mas, Arensman and Alaphilippe in the front seemed they could hold the lead but we would see.  Then Mas went to go for it.  Pretty sure Jonas and Tadej could catch them if they wanted to but maybe they were just going to race each other so was setting up for another good one.

Jonas was the first to go but Tadej stayed on well - then Jonas went again and could not shake Tadej.  With 4K to go Healy was pushing but could not drop Paret Peintre and had a 2:45 lead on Tadej and Jonas - win seemed to between the two but you never know when Tadej and Jonas get moving.  Then back with the yellow Jonas goes again - give it to him he was trying all he could but Tadej was not giving in.  Finally with 1.2k Tadej went but even though it looked to hurt Jonas he did not let go and got back on Tadej's wheel.  Up front it was Healy and Paret Peintre with the frenchman getting the win - but just.  Back with Tadej and Jonas Tadej went and while not really dropping Jonas he did get 2 seconds on him and they only finished 44 seconds back to show how fast they were going - Well Tadej did get the record for the climb and Jonas just 2 seconds off of that.

It is clear Tadej and Jonas are on another level to the rest - when you see them close over 5 minutes on the final climb up Ventoux. But also saw a great push up front and while Healy did not win he has been off the front a number of times so has not been absent till now.  Maybe all those other days got him a little to allow Paret Peintre squeak by for the stage win on the Ventoux - what a day for him.  Still talk of Tadej not being 100% with some sort of cold and sorta looked like he was doing his best to do as little as possible for this - and, again, still got the climb record and Jonas 2 seconds back.

Now a flat day, well flat for the Tour, tomorrow before two back to back mountain stages with mountain finishes with more than one climb each.  So we have the race up front but still a race for the third step and Roglic is not out of third and is slowly moving up and as was mentioned is likely getting ready for the Vuelta.

Race Highlights:

• Winner - Valentin Paret Peintre
• Yellow Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• Green Jersey - Jonathan Milan
• Polkadot Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• While Jersey - Florian Lipowitz

GC W/Time Gaps

1) Tadej Pogacar

2) Jonas Vengegaard - +04:15

3) Florian Lipowitz - +09:03

4) Oscar Onley - +11:04

5) Primoz Roglic - +11:42

6) Kevin Vauquelin - +13:20

7) Felix Gall - +14:50

8) Tobias Johannessen - +17:01

9) Ben Healy - +17:52

10) Carlos Rodriquez - +20:45

Stage 15 Recap 

Next, Stage 17 - Bollene to Valence - 160.4K - Flat

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2025 Tour de France Stage 15 Thoughts - A Rest Day for Some - Well Sort of - Are there really any rest days on the road

Stage 15 - Muret to Carcassonne - 169.3K - Hilly 

As expected the race would be quick to the sprint - unexpected was a crash at 17k that caught Jonas and Lipowitz being.  So as to return the earlier favor UAE works to slow to let them work to get back on.  That said the break that was forming up front kept going and bad for Milan was he was not in the group and MVDP was.  To make it worse there were 15 riders in the group as no sprint points for Milan who with 1k to the sprint line was 00:34 behind.  A controlled distance so once passed the peloton could catch on the first climb and others would have a chance for the win.

MVDP did have a rider in his group but it did not seem to matter as they let him roll over the land first as he moved up closer in points to get the Green Jersey.  So now the question was to be what would happen behind as they were still close.  Did see that Milan was having issues hanging on as the sprint was on a slight incline and with the high speeds not easy to just sit on.  Was going to be a long day for Milan - he is going to want this day to be over and get rest as the rest of the course is not to his liking.  Was going to be interesting as no real reason for UAE to chase and with WVA and Campenaerts in the break Visma could let it go as well and made for a strong break.  Bummer for Quinn Simmons as could have been a good day for him but looks he was held back to help Milan but not sure anyone could really help Milan.

In looking at the profile of the race it was not going to be an easy day.  What I did find was that the last two climbs - The Cat 3 Cote de Sores and Cat 2 Pas du Sant - show the top not really being the top as far as going up hill with the last climb a fair bit longer after the "top."  The last two climbs are not mountains but still tough with the Cote de Sores being 6.2K at 5.5% average and the Pas du Sant 2.9k at 10.2% but for the last one does show 11K more to go up after what is called the top.  But once they get to the actual top which is the Col de Fontbruno there is 39k pretty much all the way to the finish line. 

After the sprint came the first climb of the Cat 3 Cote de Saint-Ferreol which is 1.7K at 7% with a short descent then start climb 2.  The question was what did UAE and Visma want to do as letting the group go hurts no one and with WVA in the break Visma would have a good chance to win and depending on what MVDP wants to do it could be a very strong break. But as I write this the peloton who was only 28 seconds back you see Quinn attack to bridge but Tadej and Jonas was not going to have it.  But there were more attacks and Quinn in them all for this first climb and the gap getting smaller.   But they just cold not get across - was going to be a hard day as they start climb 2!!!!

With 81K to go and over the 2nd climb there was a group of 8 riders with a 41 second gap on 232 chasers and 2:21 on the yellow jersey peloton. Guess who was in the lead 8 - Quinn Simmons, if he keeps this up it is hard to believe that they would not vote him the most aggressive for the entire tour, but you never know with a vote and not some metric like K's in the front.  Also, in the break were Powless, Wellens, Campenaerts and Rodriguez.  Back in the chase gourd is MVDP & WVA so was going to be interesting to see what they do as with the last climb ending with close to 40K downhill to the finish so if they can keep it close the final could still be up for grabs.  I am biased but hoping Quinn can hang in there and then slip away at the end.  Did seem the Peloton was just going to take it casual as Jonas knows the finish does nto play into making a gap - barring mechanical or crash.

As they approached the top, well false top, of the last climb Quinn was still in the lead group with a 43 second gap on the first group of chasers and 4:22 on the yellow jersey group.  But Tim  Wellens who had to not do much all day as he was there for UAE went off to never bee sen again and take the stage win.  I think Quinn just did not have it and with all he has done in the tour  really understandable.  Wellens slowly opened up his lead and the chase group had others working to catch on including WVA so now was a race for second.  Who else was to take off but Campenaerts which to tell the truth seemed strange with WVA just about to latch but he stayed away and then the sprint was for 3rd and WVA was close but great to see Julian Alaphilippe, who was caught in the first crash and at the time did not look great, got him at the line - it seems the celebration for third was due to his radio braking in the early crash and he thought they were the first group so he thought he won, whoops!  Quinn just cruised in but he should still be the front runner for most egressive for the entire tour baring injury or just breaking down from so much work up front.

As far as the rest Tadej, Jonas and others all finished 6:07 back of Wellens so just a rest day for them and little excitement - well except for Jonas and others being caught behind an early crash but as they waited for them it was not an issue.  The only change in the top 10 was that Carlos Rodriguez who was ahead in the front group at the end leap frogged Ben Healy for 9th.

Up next is a rest day tomorrow then they go at it again on a mountain stage that finishes up Mt Ventoux and hard not think both Tadej and Jonas want to win this one as it is after all a famous climb and one most want to win.

Race Highlights:

• Winner - Tim Wellens
• Yellow Jersey - Tadej Pogacar
• Green Jersey - Jonathan Milan
• Polkadot Jersey - Lenny Matrinez
• While Jersey - Florian Lipowitz

GC W/Time Gaps

1) Tadej Pogacar

2) Jonas Vengegaard - +04:13

3) Florian Lipowitz - +07:53

4) Oscar Onley - +09:18

5) Kevin Vauquelin - +10:21

6) Primoz Roglic - +10:34

7) Felix Gall - +12:00

8) Tobias Johannessen - +12:33

9) Carlos Rodriquez - +18:26

10) Ben Healy - +18:41

Stage 14 Recap 

Next up after a rest day - Stage 16 - Montpellier to Mont Ventoux - 171.5K (2950M Vert) - Mountain

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• What is OFM (Optimized Fat Metabolism)

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