Sunday, July 6, 2025

2025 Tour de France Stage 1 Thoughts - Nothing is Certain

Thought I would give it a try at giving a TdF stage overview with my thoughts on the stage - so here goes Stage 1. (Updated as had heard the near miss was Philipsen in the feed but later found out it was Kaden Groves)

Stage 1 - Lille Metropole to Lille Metropole - Flat - 184.9km

When you go into the first stages of the TdF there is always some trepidation as people are fresh and everyone is nervous - this gets even more so when it is going to be windy and such was the day.  As usual the day’s first day went up the road early but never got much of a lead as this was supposed to be a day for the sprinters - but “Nothing is Certain.”

As is usual in racing these days the pace is quick and was fun to see the US Jersey up at the front on Quinn Simmons - he would end up off the back 5:18 but if showed at the front early.  These paces take a toll and when you add winds all it takes is to miss the gap in front of you and you are cooked and we say this with a number of riders some getting back on others not.

The first crash of note was at 52.2Km where two rides when down on a bend in the road with the most notable being Fillippo Ganna of Ineos.  Who after slowly getting up and getting checked out got going again but would withdraw from the race with about 80K to go as started showing symptoms of a concussion so was pulled.  A great disappointment for him as he had a chance on at least the Stage 5 ITT and took a big engine out of the Tour.  I do wonder if his position had anything to do with Ineos not really seeming to having much a plan for races lately with no real GC favorite.  When a team has a favorite the rest of the team surround them and is usually much closer to the front and with an engine like Ganna’s he is up there but without often riders slip back to save energy - but it is risky back there  - Nothing is Certain.

There was one other crash that while not involving top riders was maybe the most seen was when the two leaders in the break were going for the Mountain Points - in these early stages the points are not high and usually the break takes the points and in this case with so few points having 2 of them would guarantee you the Polkadot Jersey for the day - if you finish.  Thus was the case on the second climb which was pretty much a photo finish as Benjamin Thomas won the sprint but with throwing he bike and on cobbles there was a cash at the line, don’t see that often, and while I am sure the other rider was totally surprised at least not real damage and Thomas stayed in till the finish to get the Polkadot Jersey - Nothing is Certain

Here is the crash at the line:

The cross winds were a worry and they played into the race later on near the end as the field split at the front with riders like Roglic and Evenepoel, among others, missing the break and starting the Tour with a 39 second deficit on GC to Pogacar and Vingegaard. While not a GC favorite was surprised to see that Van Wert with is team leader ahead miss the gap the winds caused.  They knew this could happen and it still did but for big names like Roglic and Evenepoel to miss was not expected.  What was obvious was that the one team with the plan to win the sprint was Alpecin as they had guys up front with the big engine of Mathieu Van Der Peel stringing it out and helping to create the gap.  Once the gap happened MVDP kept the pace up  to keep the sprinters who missed the break from getting back on.  Alpecin knows how to race the one day classics and they raced like that today.  

(Edited as found out info on near crash was not Philipsen) As the race passedr the 5K banner there was another crash that could have take out one of Alpecin's sprinters Kaden Groves but did not.  The clip below shows the crash and also shows how it takes not only great bike handling and some fortune to not go down.  The significance of this is that Groves was key to Philipsen's win in the lead out.  Then as we got near the end we saw that that Alpecin had a plan and with MVDP pulling hard - hard to get a better lead out guy than a past World Champion with a huge engine.  When they dropped of Philipsen he had Grimay on his wheel but as he had no team mates to get him there he was gassed and as he did a great job to get second he was no match for Philipsen who had an armchair ride to the finish. 

Groves Near miss - at 2:07 of the video

Philipsen Win - Last 5k of race

So while Nothing is Certain in bike racing have to say the Alpecin train did look certain.  Might have only been stage one but the other thing that was certain was Pogacar and Vingegaard showed they are in this for the win as both stayed near the front and did not miss the moves - with Vingegard even wining the last mountain point and being at the front a few times early.  I would say - and this is only by looks - Pogacar just seemed so relaxed in staying where he needed to be and not showing at the front but always near it.  With gaps already for the GC contenders this will be interesting as Roglic and Evenapoel need to pick up time - pretty sure Evenepoel is looking for the Stage 5  33k ITT to try and get back some but Pogacar and Vingegaard are no slouches in the ITT.

Lots of fun ahead - but - “Nothing is Certain”
  • Winner - Jasper Philipsen
  • Yellow Jersey - Jasper Philipsen
  • Green Jersey - Jasper Philipsen
  • Polkadot Jersey - Benjamin Thomas
  • While Jersey - Biniam Girmay




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