Thursday, July 10, 2025

2025 Tour de France Stage 6 Thoughts - A Tough Day for Everyone - More So For Some.


The excitement would start early with the days sprint point for Green Jersey points being at 22k so there was not going to be a break till after that.  In the sprint was Milan for first with MVDP second and Girmay third.  So looked like at least for now MVDP wants to stay in the Green Jersey hunt. 

Was interesting as right after the sprint the break was likely to go and it did with Simmons and Healy going off the front.  Sort of thought this would happen as saw Quinn near the front but not leading out Milan so the plan was to just keep going so we had the first break of the day - likely would have been better with 4 but it was a start.

With 168+k to go the lead group went to 4 as they started the first climb of the day that now included strong man Victor Campenaerts - a good guy to have in the break but he worked hard to get there. But this break was not going to be gone for long as the peloton wanted to keep them in check.  Breaks need the right mix to make them stick with this still being a stage others want to win as once they hit the real climbs on Stage 10 in the mountains the possible winners changes.  As far as sprinters it was going to be a long day as with 155k to go the big sprinters were almost 2:00 off the back - opening the door for MVDP but they likely hoped that a break would go and the peloton would ease - well they hoped for this.  To get how fast they were going for each stage they have a predicted time along the way and at about 134k to go they were 3 minutes ahead of the fastest expected time.

Things were interesting as a break of 5 became more with MVDP in it but the peloton not far back at 20+ seconds and still 112K to go.  Lot of work for a break with such a small gap but the front was not letting off and at the time the sprinter group was already 8:00 behind.  If you did not know there is a cut-off time for every stage based on a percentage of the winning time so they have to watch that as if drop behind that they are eliminated from the race.  Maybe a good thing was there were so many in the group but the estimated time limit was about 48:00 so not likely but will be a tough day for them.  This was not what I think they expected but is what took place as they were all just drilling it. 

The break grew to 8 and in it with MVDP were the two Americans Quinn Simmons and Will Barta.  There was no one for the big guys to worry about for GC, long term, but they were still not letting them get much of a lead even though they could let them go out further as a long way to go and a lot more climbing.  On top of this with at 105K the average speed was 47KPH (29.2mph) and the sprinters group was now 8:45 behind and a long way to go for them.  Was interesting watching as the longer they kept the break in check it was not sure if it was so they could come forward or then let it stay at a good distance - remember MVDP was only 1:28 behind so if they got out too far he could get the Yellow Jersey but long term was no threat to Tadej, Remco or Jonas.

By under 100K to go they finally let the break go out over 1:00 but still al long way to go with plenty of climbing - not exceptionally long but steep in places - even the finish is on a short steepish rise.  Then by 78K to go the break had 2:04 on the peloton with MVDP in the Virtual Yellow.  That said in watching live the test was going to be at 65K to go when the final 4 climbs then the rise to the finish starts.  That is still a long way to go so the peloton still had them in check with UAE and Visma able to close that gap pretty close.  Hard to tell Tadej's mindset as to if he wants to keep the Jersey - watching live this makes it really interesting.

Seeing the break go out further to 3:00 started looking like they would let them go but the question then was would they bring it back some to keep Tadej in Yellow or just let it go.  Truth is this was all about what Tadej and UAE wanted as letting MVDP go was not a big issue GC wise long term as he would loose the amount he gained here on the first mountain stage - keep in mind still hilly stages to come.  So letting him go here they then could just keep it where it was for the next stages and takes the pressure off of UAE.  It does seem Tadj and MVDP get along so would have not put it past Tadej to let him go.  The other advantage with a group out front is it makes life easy for UAE - well unless others had different designs coming close to the finish.

In watching the break I do think Quinn was working hard as did not go for the Mtn points when he was right at the front.  Smart move on the first of the closing climbs if working hard as a hard effort early could spell doom for later.  Saw this on the second climb as well.  That all said gotta remember that Quinn, and Healy, had been in the break since the sprint at just over 20K - tough day for them both.

With 43K to go and the break now at almost 4 minutes it was looking more and more like they were going to let them go.  But this did not stop there being action up front as the 7 riders with MVDP know they need to work to do something and can't wait till the end.  Ben Healy was the first to make a bold move with 42K to go to go alone and everyone else going to want to wait on MVDP to close the gap.  Healy's gap moved out to 20+ seconds but still a closable gap.  At the time I was figuring MVDP wanted to wait to close, if others did not, till he knew he could get away alone and be able to make it to the finish. As thing went it was pretty clear the Peloton was not going to chase as with 33k to go Healy had a 5:00 gap on the Peloton and 45 seconds on the breakaway.  I think he knows MVDP wants the Yellow and to keep it he could not put out too much here but would he was the question at the time.  The coming climb - next to last but for the finish - would tell what was ahead.

As Healy kept his lead on the two chasing him, actually growing it, and the rest of the break one might ignore the peloton as Tadej gives up the yellow.  That said there is still something to watch at the end in the peloton as the finish is a leg burner and there could be gaps and can impact the main GC people - especially with Jonas not wanting to lose more time.  The race at the front is great but still was going to be a race to watch in the peloton.  But looked good for Healy as he eased out more time on Quinn and Michael Storer and even more on the MVDP group.  Unless he has issues he was looking good as these types of breaks are what he has done before.

At 15K to go it came pretty clear that unless Ben Healy blew up he was going to get the win.  Also, seemed less clear if the two behind Healy could stay ahead of the 5 man group with MVDP.  To their advantage was that everyone wanted MVDP to bridge the gap and I think by this time all MVDP had on his mind was to keep the right amount of gap to the main Peloton and his grip on the Yellow.  Really was smart of MVDP as while Healy and others can just rest the next days if in Yellow MVDP will need to keep working to hang onto Yellow - likely to Stage 10 and the first Man stage so 3 stages of hard work for MVDP.  I did wonder if he would work to get Quinn and Michael to get finish points to help on a run at Green.

With 5K to go it was clear Ben Healy was going to win so the next thing to watch was if Simmons and Storer could stay ahead for 2nd and third.  What a ride it was for Ben to go when he did and not only hold it but grow the gap over a difficult course.  Races like this keep you interested as all sorts of stories.  How much would Ben win by, Would Quinn and Michael stay ahead, they did, and where would MVDP end up - if not in going for top three not sure he worried about it - but points are points.

All that said you also had the Peloton who has barely been shown would be very interesting to watch at the finish for GC ramifications.  But even then the gap from MVDP to the peloton was down 3:33 and he had to be over 1:28 ahead to get Yellow and the peloton can move fast if it needs to so there was still a story line to see written.

Awesome to see Healy and Simmons who went from 22K finish up front - long day out front for them going 1 - 2.  Next drop came in and MVDP was not there but did include American Will Barta.  The questions was where MVDP ended and the gap to the peloton who had really picked up the pace as MVDP dropped back and the result was that Tadej ended up losing the Yellow by only 1 second.  In watching after the finishes that MVDP was toast and how would he be in tomorrows once again hilly stage.  Also cool to see that Healy moved up to 8th place on GC.

What a race and was clear the Peloton was moving at the end and not bad for Tadej as only being back by 1 second and Jonas and Remco right there with him as before MVDP is not a worry.  Tomorrow will be get even more interesting as will be hard for MVPD to defend but sure his team will try.  Best for him would be that another break gets away and he and his team can get some rest as even on break days on these hilly routes the final K's get brisk.

The rides of the day go to Ben Healy and Quinn Simmons for the long day out front.  Also, we often take MVDP for granted but this was a tough one for him and he was able to get Yellow, even if by only 1 second.  The rest of the GC stayed much the same with Ben Healy moving up to 8th with his great win today.  Did notice while not much Roglic lost 5 seconds to the main guys on the final push - a finish that normally he excels on.

Race Highlights:
  • Winner - Ben Healy
  • Yellow Jersey - Mathieu Van Der Poel
  • Green Jersey - Jonathan Milan
  • Polkadot Jersey - Tim Wellens
  • While Jersey - Remco Evenepoel
GC W/Time Gaps
1) Mathieu Van Der Poel
2) Tadej Pogacar - +00:01
3) Remco Evenepoel - +00:43
4) Kevin Vauquelin - +01:00
5) Jonas Vingegaard - +01:14
6) Mateo Jorgensen - +01:23
7) Joao Almeida - +01:59
8) Ben Healy - +02:01
9) Florian Lipowitz - +02:32
10) Roglic - +02:36






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